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Briefing Room, Briefings, Europe and Russia, Talking Points

Contextualizing the Shift: Examining the Rise of Right-Wing Politics in the European Union

No Cause for Alarm

The recent shift towards right-wing politics within the European Union reflects a growing trend rather than an immediate cause for alarm. This political realignment is largely driven by economic challenges and internal factors that promote conservative actions within a predominantly center-conservative Western culture.

In France, for instance, President Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament following gains by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party may seem dramatic, but it is primarily a strategic move to maintain the centrist status quo and prevent polarization between Left and Right. Macron intends to serve out his term for another three years, ensuring stability in parliamentary proceedings and effective policy formulation amid potential internal disagreements.

Similarly, the increase in far-right representation within the EU appears significant, yet it primarily serves as an indicator of future political landscapes rather than an immediate policy-making force. The EU functions as a representative body rather than a legislative authority, lacking direct influence over member states’ laws and policies. This ideological shift sets a tone for upcoming debates on issues such as environmental protections and immigration policies across member countries in the coming decade.

 

U.S. Election Impacts of EU

Regarding the United States and its upcoming elections, the European rightward shift is likely to persist regardless of whether Biden or Trump assumes the presidency. The difference lies in the pace of this shift: under Biden, geopolitical tensions may stabilize gradually, potentially slowing the growth of right-wing movements. However, a Trump presidency could accelerate this trend, possibly leading to more profound economic insecurities and a heightened appeal of far-right ideologies both domestically and abroad.

 

What You Can Expect

It’s important for multinational enterprises to monitor upcoming elections across EU and NATO member states over the next year. However, the current political realignment is predominantly a macro-political issue rather than a micro-economic one for these corporations. While strikes and political demonstrations for workers’ rights may increase in response to the removal of progressive regulations, significant legislative changes or direct threats to civil rights are unlikely in the near term. As European parliaments polarize further, legislative gridlock may impede significant policy initiatives, prolonging periods of olitical stalemate.

AGS, Global Perspectives

An Introduction to A.G. Sanning

Welcome to the Global Perspectives blog!

Global Perspectives Political Risk Official

The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. With the growing rates of globalization and conflict, there have been an increasing number of turbulent political, social and economic developments, transforming both the foreign and domestic business markets. 

 

  • Last year, the capitol was shaken by a terrorist-backed coup intended to overthrow our legislative body. This has significantly damaged the already declining reputation of the U.S. in international markets and changed our image from that of a world leader to one of political and financial instability.

 

  • A few weeks ago, a landmark civil rights case was overturned in a Supreme Court more blatantly partisan than any before it, jeopardizing both privacy and human rights protections for large portions of the population. This decision will impact compliance policies for organizations and severely complicate human resource processes.

 

  • This week, an internationally recognized political leader was assassinated in broad daylight in a country where gun ownership is more heavily regulated than almost anywhere else in the world.

 

  • Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has led to shortages of both Russian gas and Ukrainian wheat on the world market, threatening both the political and economic stability of nations who rely on these resources. The severely limited food supply has led to high inflation, supply chain and logistics issues for the organizations that operate within the region. 

 

These issues, and many more, challenge the safety and prosperity of Americans and American companies both overseas and here at home. A clear understanding of the political picture overseas is more vital than ever before to those who live, work, and/or have interests abroad.

 

Though you cannot control what will happen, when it will happen, or how global leaders and their policies will respond, an understanding of geopolitical risk is essential in order to safeguard your assets, investments and projects. 

 

A.G. Sanning is a boutique risk consultancy whose mission is to keep small to medium enterprises and nonprofits agile in these times of political and economic uncertainty. We provide comprehensive geopolitical risk analysis and due diligence services to protect and inform you about changes in the world and the impact these might have on your organizations and their interests.

 

Our firm’s work is intended to support decision-makers by proactively identifying and implementing measures to protect your investments, no matter the size of your portfolio. Our risk analysis and due diligence platform identifies, quantifies, and advises on ways in which to take advantage of opportunities and mitigate threats which may accompany various political, diplomatic, or economic outcomes. 

 

We offer:

  • review of changes in legislation and foreign policy initiatives
  • assessment of the popular mood and its repercussions
  • evaluation of economic performance following a political development, 
  • strategizing for global nonprofits, think tanks and international projects.

 

Most of our free data and research publications can be found in the Briefing Room, along with various white papers and reference materials. But this blog serves a slightly different purpose. Global Perspectives is designed as a forum for discussion of the various facets of global developments. It is intended to help readers gain a well-rounded understanding of a given situation in context and to propose ways in which to safeguard your investments.

 

We do this by providing editorial comment, interviews, and think pieces from various points of view. The content will be held to the same standards that characterize our risk analyses. Where necessary, we will provide reference materials relevant to the situations being discussed. 

 

At A.G. Sanning, we are committed to providing our clients with unbiased and reliably accurate information. In keeping with that commitment, we intend for this blog to cover intense, sometimes controversial topics with an analytical eye, in order to provide our readers with a more thorough understanding of them. To ensure consistency and establish a neutral baseline for discussions, this blog begins with a balanced focus on diversity, equity, inclusion and human rights law, then expands into other points of view. 

 

The blog will feature: 

  • Editorials from the A.G. Sanning team
  • Interviews to provide more global perspectives
  • A listing of upcoming events
  • Opinion pieces from special contributors
  • Theory and application
  • Travel logs and updates
  • Political book reviews
  • Questions and answers

 

We hope this blog will help empower business leaders to stay informed and make better decisions for their organizations and the rest of the world. 

 

To get started, click any of the links above, or Contact Us to learn how we can help protect your business today.