Category Archives: Regions

Briefing Room, Briefings, Europe and Russia, Talking Points

Contextualizing the Shift: Examining the Rise of Right-Wing Politics in the European Union

No Cause for Alarm

The recent shift towards right-wing politics within the European Union reflects a growing trend rather than an immediate cause for alarm. This political realignment is largely driven by economic challenges and internal factors that promote conservative actions within a predominantly center-conservative Western culture.

In France, for instance, President Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament following gains by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party may seem dramatic, but it is primarily a strategic move to maintain the centrist status quo and prevent polarization between Left and Right. Macron intends to serve out his term for another three years, ensuring stability in parliamentary proceedings and effective policy formulation amid potential internal disagreements.

Similarly, the increase in far-right representation within the EU appears significant, yet it primarily serves as an indicator of future political landscapes rather than an immediate policy-making force. The EU functions as a representative body rather than a legislative authority, lacking direct influence over member states’ laws and policies. This ideological shift sets a tone for upcoming debates on issues such as environmental protections and immigration policies across member countries in the coming decade.

 

U.S. Election Impacts of EU

Regarding the United States and its upcoming elections, the European rightward shift is likely to persist regardless of whether Biden or Trump assumes the presidency. The difference lies in the pace of this shift: under Biden, geopolitical tensions may stabilize gradually, potentially slowing the growth of right-wing movements. However, a Trump presidency could accelerate this trend, possibly leading to more profound economic insecurities and a heightened appeal of far-right ideologies both domestically and abroad.

 

What You Can Expect

It’s important for multinational enterprises to monitor upcoming elections across EU and NATO member states over the next year. However, the current political realignment is predominantly a macro-political issue rather than a micro-economic one for these corporations. While strikes and political demonstrations for workers’ rights may increase in response to the removal of progressive regulations, significant legislative changes or direct threats to civil rights are unlikely in the near term. As European parliaments polarize further, legislative gridlock may impede significant policy initiatives, prolonging periods of olitical stalemate.

Briefing Room, insights, Middle East, North America

OPEC Fluctuations Incentivize Green Energy Transition

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) has consistently cut oil production goals since Feburary of 2022. This has severely put a strain on the United States’ diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer and exporter in OPEC.

At the same time, Russia has invaded Ukraine and is strategically cutting off energy supply to its client states in Western Europe. This includes members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With our faltering diplomatic relationships, reliance on foreign oil now constitutes a much greater security dilemma.

Energy diplomacy has always been a staple of Russian and Saudi economic strategy. However the timing of the cuts from OPEC+ has led the U.S. to accuse Saudi Arabia of supporting Russian aggression.

OPEC
A docked oil tanker. Courtesy of Tom Fisk, Pexels

Russia is a tertiary member of OPEC and a large oil exporter.  It is unlikely that other OPEC members would risk the ire of their Western clients to clandestinely support them.

OPEC is most likely ensuring they reach their financial obligations by lowering supply amid increasing demand. This would increase state revenues on petrol-based products as a buffer against the economic impact of Covid-19.

Petroleum-rich Russia just happens to benefit as well.

Whether lowering crude oil production rates and driving up costs was purposeful or the result of OPEC self-preservation is inconsequential. It still serves as a strategic challenge to the US and its allies in their defensive strategy for Ukraine.

The global community condemned Russia’s aggression via financial sanctions. This crippled Putin’s ability to scale Russian aggressive tactics. This allowed other countries to make a stance without having to risk the major losses of tactical intervention.

But by lowering production rates, OPEC effectively diminished the impact of those sanctions. In turn, pushing the financial burden back onto us through our complete economic reliance on foreign oil imports.

As of now the U.S. has lifted some sanctions on petroleum-rich Venezuela in order to balance out import levels with local demand rates.

This is only a temporary fix.

 OPEC

A burning tower at an oil refinery, courtesy of Nur Andiravsanjani Gusma, Pexels

Venezuela was one of the founding members of OPEC and while they may not have reserves at the scale of Saudi Arabia, they can still conspire to increase prices and decrease supply.

What happens when their oil prices become too burdensome? Will the US lift more sanctions? What happens when negotiations falter?

This situation can only get worse for our country’s economic and diplomatic outlook.

With our own oil reserves severely limited, it would be more practical in the long term to completely eliminate our reliance on fossil fuels.  The United States government should appropriate funds for renewable energy research and prioritize development of green energy technology.

OPEC
Windmills on the water, courtesy of Pixabay, Pexels

The complete elimination of fossil fuels would require a thorough redesign of our national infrastructure, as well as advances in the solar, wind, and hydroelectric sectors at a far greater scale. If we want to ensure we are fully emancipated from foreign fuel, we need to invest in these as soon as possible.

The funds could also be used to establish diplomatic partnerships in developing nations to build green infrastructures abroad. By owning the patents on all the new technology, we would stand to gain the most from these new developments.

Not only would the research revolutionize the global economy, but it would also significantly lower demand for remaining fuel reserves. This would drive down costs to import fuel so we can update our own infrastructure sustainably over time. It would also diminish the reach of oil exporting countries.

It may take many years but compared to the increased security risk posed by OPEC, green energy infrastructure is a worthwhile investment in our future.

 

This article was written by the A.G. Sanning Team. To learn more about our take on current events or read about the team visit the Global Perspectives Blog.